NK225 Vol Surface Dashboard

▸ —

Open Position

日経225ミニ OP 26/04 C 58000

Entry

¥925

03/03

Last

¥1,060

BS sc4 (far-month)

P&L

+¥13,500

+14.6%

Day 4 of 10 6d remaining · exit ~03/17

Fear Cycle

✓

Normal

✓

Both Steep

✓

Vol Hang

●

Recovery

Current: Recovery · State day: 1

Skew — Primary signal inputs

Volatility Smile — Near tenor, T to T-5

Implied vs Realised — Fear premium & scoring input

Term Structure & Vol Momentum — Regime and Vol Hang inputs

Wing Spread & PCR — FTD gate and scoring inputs

IV − RV Spread — Complacency detector

Days to Expiry

Mar 2026 03/13

⚠ 7d — too short

Apr 2026 04/10

35d

May 2026 05/08

63d

Jun 2026 06/12

98d

Alignment History · Last 20 Sessions

FTd2

BSd1

BSd2

FTd1

FTd2

FTd3

FTd4

NSd1

BSd1

VHd1

VHd2

BS FTD VH NS Normal

Last: BS 03/05 · FTD 02/24 · VH 03/05 · NS 03/02

Settlement Data — Last 20 days

Date	Fut	NrSkw	FrSkw	TW30	RV20	IV-RV	Wings	TS	PCR	Align	BS	FTD	Action
02-05	53,818	4.02	4.64	30.49	24.18	6.31	6.78	-10.54	1.71	FTD d2	1	4	BUY ATM CALL (Aftershock) [far 36d]
02-06	54,253	8.22	6.16	32.31	23.30	9.01	7.78	-11.72	1.68	BS d1	5	5	BUY 35Δ CALL (BS sc5/5) [far 35d]
02-09	56,363	6.82	6.04	30.02	24.73	5.29	6.76	-1.60	1.59	BS d2	3	4	BUY 35Δ CALL (BS sc3/5)
02-10	57,650	4.03	4.74	30.12	24.07	6.05	5.44	-1.50	1.69	—	2	3	—
02-12	57,440	5.89	5.82	29.78	24.00	5.78	5.92	-1.80	1.78	—	1	4	—
02-13	56,941	5.22	5.03	29.31	24.24	5.07	7.00	-1.09	1.65	—	1	5	—
02-16	56,900	3.49	4.19	27.27	24.21	3.06	5.53	0.54	1.63	FTD d1	1	2	BUY ATM CALL (Aftershock)
02-17	56,566	4.40	5.05	27.39	24.10	3.29	6.89	-0.25	1.63	—	0	4	—
02-18	57,260	3.11	3.20	25.35	23.19	2.16	5.78	0.68	1.64	FTD d1	0	1	NO TRADE (FTD sc1/5 < 4)
02-19	57,560	2.99	3.51	24.76	23.16	1.60	5.51	0.86	1.62	FTD d2	0	1	NO TRADE (FTD sc1/5 < 4)
02-20	56,840	4.62	4.62	25.35	23.38	1.96	6.65	0.46	1.62*	FTD d3	0	4	NO TRADE (FTD d3)
02-24	57,340	4.32	3.89	25.62	23.44	2.18	6.41	0.12	1.62*	FTD d4	0	4	NO TRADE (FTD d4)
02-25	58,790	0.57	1.41	25.51	23.51	2.01	4.94	0.87	1.62*	—	1	1	—
02-26	58,850	2.36	2.56	25.78	23.51	2.27	4.59	-0.24	1.62*	—	0	1	—
02-27	59,100	-0.08	2.06	25.35	23.50	1.85	5.22	0.75	1.62*	—	0	1	—
03-02	58,000	7.42	5.93	28.36	24.63	3.73	7.26	-1.35	1.62*	NS d1	1	5	MONITOR (NS d1)
03-03	56,150	12.50	9.45	30.77	27.90	2.87	11.61	-3.56	1.62*	BS d1	4	4	BUY 35Δ CALL (BS sc4/5) [far 38d]
03-04	54,245	15.62	13.05	38.67	30.36	8.31	20.20	-8.54	1.67	BS d2 ⚡VH	5	5	NO ENTRY (VH d1)
03-05	55,278	16.11	12.86	35.07	27.88	7.19	13.19	-5.41	1.67*	BS d3 ⚡VH	4	5	NO ENTRY (VH d2)
03-06	55,730	5.58	7.22	32.37	28.10	4.27	10.89	-4.62	1.67*	—	1	4	—

Signal Gates

Both Steep Nr 5.6 ≥ 6.0 AND Fr 7.2 ≥ 6.0

FTD Gate Wing 10.9 > 5.5 AND Fr 7.2 < 5.0

Vol Hang TW30Δ5d +7.0 ≥ 8.0 AND TW30 32.4 ∈ [25,40]

Near Steep Nr 5.6 ≥ 6.0 AND Fr 7.2 < 6.0

BS Score /5

✗ STEEP (Both ≥ 6.0)

✓ WINGS > 7.3 (10.9)

✗ NR−FR > 1.0 (-1.6)

✗ SMILE > 1.3 (1.11)

✗ IV−RV > 5 (+4.3)

BS Score: 1/5 → no trade

FTD Score /5

✗ NR−FR > 0 (-1.6)

✓ NR > 4.0 (5.6)

✓ IV−RV > 3 (+4.3)

✓ Wings > 6 (10.9)

✓ PCR ≥ 1.6 (1.67)

FTD Score: 4/5 → 35Δ outright

Position Rules

● Hold 10 days. No early exits.

● PK ≥ 2 + losing → close (only exception).

● PK ≥ 2 + winning → hold (69% continues).

● VH active → no new calls. Wait for handoff.

● NS d2+ → close all longs immediately.

● DTE ≥ 15 for all call entries.

BT24 Watch (monitoring only)

Disloc Quality IV-RV resid +8.5 → Strong — 81% win, +1225 pts (resid>0)

Tail-Body NrSkw 5.58 < 1 AND Wings 10.9 > 4 — H14: +572, 75% win, boot5 +208

Rally-Euphoria 40d ret +nan% ≤ 15% AND NrSkw 5.58 ≥ 0 — crash protection: 5% pullback rate vs 63%

Decision Flow Reference — Gate → Score → Structure

▸

① Gate
Active?

→

② Score
Strong enough?

→

③ Strike
Delta selection

→

④ Hold 10d

Both Steep

CALL · L1

Gate

NrSkw ≥ 6 FrSkw ≥ 6
Day 1–2 · DTE ≥ 15 · VH off

BS Score /5

Steep · Wings>7.3 · NR-FR>1
Smile>1.3 · IV-RV>5
Min: 2

Structure

Score 2 + TW30≤30 → 25Δ Outright
Score 3+ → 35Δ Outright

FTD

CALL · L1

Gate (≠ score)

Wing > 5.5 FrSkw < 5
NOT BS · Day 1–2 · DTE ≥ 15

FTD Score /5

NR-FR>0 · NR>4 · IV-RV>3
Wings>6 · PCR≥1.6
Min: 4 · Gate ≠ Score

Structure

Score 4+ → 35Δ Outright
Score 3 + cluster → ATM (Aftershock)
Score 0–2 → No trade

Handoff

CALL · L1

Gate

VH just ended
+ BS fires d1–2

Score

None. Pattern = conviction.

Structure

Always 35Δ Outright

Echo

CALL · L1

Gate

BS just ended
+ FTD fires d1

Score

None. Pattern = conviction.

Structure

Always ATM Outright

Aftershock

CALL · L1

Gate

FTD gate open d1–2
+ FTD 5f sc ≥ 2
+ IV-RV > 3 (mandatory)
+ Signal within 20d · Not Echo

Score

FTD 5f score ≥ 2.
IV-RV>3 mandatory filter.
Post-cluster context required.
sc<2 or IV-RV≤3: no trade.

Structure

Always ATM Outright
Back-loaded (35% by d3).

Vol Hang

PUT · L2A

Gate

TW30Δ5d ≥ +8
TW30 ∈ [25,40]
D1–2: suppress calls only
D3+: trade

Score

None. D3+ = mechanical.

Structure

Always Put Spread
ATM put, sell 5% below. 2–3mo.

Near Steep

WARN · L2C

Gate

NrSkw ≥ 6 FrSkw < 6
Day 2+

Score

None. Not a trade.

Action

Close all longs.
5d avg: −996. No puts.

CAV

PUT · L2B

Gate (all four)

RV>20 TW30<20
P5: 3+BS in 20d, 2+N days
NrSkw<4

Score

None. Discretionary.

Structure

Put Spread (if you act)
Alert only. Evaluate first.

v19: BT24 SC2 TW30 gate. SC2 requires TW30≤30 (high IV may be correct, not mispriced). SC3+ unaffected. +39 pts/yr. Zero Aftershock interaction.
v18: BT23 cleanup. BS 5 factors (PCR/CONTG removed). FTD 5 factors (RV<25 removed). Aftershock: FTD 5f sc≥2 + IV-RV>3 mandatory + cluster 20d. CAV: RV>20 + TW30<20 + P5(3bs,2n,20d) + NrSkw<4. All call outrights. Delta determines strike.